I haven't run the numbers, but it looks like he worked out a deal that is statistically advantageous by, essentially, being better at statistics than the casinos (or, perhaps, as the article hints, considering the whole picture better when the casinos rely on their computer models). I think the article does a very poor job of explaining this, but there is more to it than that. But he didn't beat the system, like a skilled counting team can just barely manage he just got damn lucky. Well, yawn me a cloud: rich guy gets richer by being fortunate enough to have a massive winning streak in the casinos. That means he basically got lucky on a a bunch of coin tosses. Hopefully he has the discipline to walk away while he's up and not keep playing now that the house has the advantage again. The casinos have obviously caught on that he's not just lucky, they stupidly handed him a huge advantage. If he set a goal of playing each day and quitting when he either wins or loses 5M, he's be earning 500M/day. That would be the same as winning 100k/day. If he could alternate winning and losing $1M/day, he'd break even a the table but claim 200k in discounts/debt forgiveness on days he lost. However, on the days he lost, the casino would forgive 20% of his losses. If the odds were 50/50, on some days he'd break even, on others he'd win, and on others he lose. Let's say he played for $10M worth of hands each day. However, when they changed the discount rules, they gave him a huge advantage. If he made mistakes, they'd make a lot of money. If he played perfect, they'd make a little bit of money. On top of that, they lowered their edge by changing a few rules.įrom the casinos point of view, the rule change alone would not be an issue, since they still had a slight advantage. To lure his business, the casinos changed the rules and offered him a larger discount and would only count the wins/losses for a single day of gambling. But this was cumulative, so if he won 5M, he'd have to lose 5M before they'd give him the discount again. Basically, if he lost a million, they'd let him slide on $100k. The casino's previously offered lifetime discounts to this guy.
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